Black People Politics : Black Incarceration hasn’t been this low in a generation

[Clyde C Coger Jr]

Brennan Center for Justice

Just Facts: The U.S. Prison Population Is Down (A Little)

The decline was the result of prisoner reductions in 24 states and the federal system outpacing prison population increases in 21 state prison systems (data to calculate year-to-year changes was not available for five states). The current imprisonment rate of 471 prisoners per 100,000 residents is the lowest in more than a decade.

On the whole, state prison populations have been consistently falling since 2009. By contrast, the federal prison population continued to grow until 2013. This year marks the second year in a row the federal prison population dropped.

Declining prison populations should be good news, for both offenders and the taxpayers who pay to house them. So why don’t we see either group cheering?

The answer is that taxpayers are still footing a big bill, just from a different creditor. While prison populations are shrinking, jails are rapidly adding occupants to their rolls – meaning that on net, the government has realized very little cost savings. Meanwhile, those who avoided prison aren’t remarkably better off, general landing in jails. Furthermore, those who remain in prison are serving out longer sentences.
While those prison savings were accruing, jail costs were undoubtedly rising.

The decline in prison population is still an indisputably positive development in the effort to end mass incarceration. The prison population has now fallen four of the last five years and these decreases suggest that parts the criminal justice system have begun to adopt a smarter approach to punishment. Rather than wantonly assigning long prison terms, more jurisdictions are diverting low-level offenders to jail and community supervision programs.

Still, the pace of reform is painfully slow and not everyone has reason to applaud the data in Prisoners 2014. Among those likely to be disappointed are currently incarcerated federal prisoners. For them, not much has changed:

1. 
   
   
   • Just Facts: The U.S. Prison Population Is Down (A Little) | Brennan ...
     https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/us-prison-population-down-little - 55k - Cached - Similar pages
     Oct 29, 2015 ... That's down by 15,400 people or one percent from the previous year ... Applying these estimates to reduction

This information corroborates with the article I posted, as it explains:


"... On the whole, state prison populations have been consistently falling since 2009. By contrast, the federal prison population continued to grow until 2013. This year marks the second year in a row the federal prison population dropped ..."


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[Clyde C Coger Jr]

Wonder why prisons stay full when crime goes down? Here’s the real reason.

Crime and punishment — and specifically, the United States’ high rates of incarceration — have been in the news lately. In the presidential campaign, protesters have demanded an accounting for the 1994 Crime Bill, which President Bill Clinton signed, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton supported, and Sen. Bernie Sanders voted for. Presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trumphas drawn a distinction between punishing violent crimes and nonviolent crimes. And we have seen bipartisan efforts in Congress to scale back mass incarceration.

But most people — scholars, policymakers, and involved citizens alike — misunderstand the relationship between crime and punishment. The conventional wisdom has it that when crime goes up, we should see more people in prison, and when crime goes down, we should see fewer people in prison. But for two decades, as crime rates have plummeted the prison population has soared.

Scholars have puzzled over this pattern. The economist Glenn Loury writes, “For two generations, crime rates have fluctuated with no apparent relationship to a steady climb in the extent for imprisonment.” David Garland summarizes the scholarly view by explaining, “One axiom of the sociological literature is that punishment and penal measures are, to a considerable degree, independent of crime.”

This view is wrong. Crime and imprisonment are linked. But not in the way most people expect. Let me explain.

Here’s how to measure the way crime and imprisonment are linked

Most prison sentences in the United States are for more than one year. Thus, even if crime goes down, and the number of new incarcerations goes down, the total prison population can still increase — because most of those incarcerated in previous years are still behind bars. Suppose 100 crimes are committed in a given year and all 100 perpetrators are arrested, convicted, and sentenced to three years in prison (with no parole). Now, suppose in the next year the crime rate drops tenfold and only 10 crimes are committed, with all 10 perpetrators arrested, convicted, and sentenced to three years. Because the 100 individuals sentenced last year are still behind bars for another two years, the 10 new convictions will bring the total up to 110. Even though crime went down dramatically, the prison population grew because more people entered prison than were released.

This is good, general prison population information, but it doesn't contain racial demographics refuting the data in the article I posted on the latest de-incarceration rates of Blacks.


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[IFE]

Sorry, should have focused strictly on the article you posted.
My apologies.

Still, the pace of reform is painfully slow and not everyone has reason to applaud the data in Prisoners 2014. Among those likely to be disappointed are currently incarcerated federal prisoners. For them, not much has changed:

Until mass incarceration is eradicated I might have a difficult time accepting any writings claiming incarceration is down.

 

[IFE]

I did address your article:

Brennan Center for Justice

Just Facts: The U.S. Prison Population Is Down (A Little)

The decline was the result of prisoner reductions in 24 states and the federal system outpacing prison population increases in 21 state prison systems (data to calculate year-to-year changes was not available for five states). The current imprisonment rate of 471 prisoners per 100,000 residents is the lowest in more than a decade.

On the whole, state prison populations have been consistently falling since 2009. By contrast, the federal prison population continued to grow until 2013. This year marks the second year in a row the federal prison population dropped.

Declining prison populations should be good news, for both offenders and the taxpayers who pay to house them. So why don’t we see either group cheering?

The answer is that taxpayers are still footing a big bill, just from a different creditor. While prison populations are shrinking, jails are rapidly adding occupants to their rolls – meaning that on net, the government has realized very little cost savings. Meanwhile, those who avoided prison aren’t remarkably better off, general landing in jails. Furthermore, those who remain in prison are serving out longer sentences.
While those prison savings were accruing, jail costs were undoubtedly rising.

The decline in prison population is still an indisputably positive development in the effort to end mass incarceration. The prison population has now fallen four of the last five years and these decreases suggest that parts the criminal justice system have begun to adopt a smarter approach to punishment. Rather than wantonly assigning long prison terms, more jurisdictions are diverting low-level offenders to jail and community supervision programs.

Still, the pace of reform is painfully slow and not everyone has reason to applaud the data in Prisoners 2014. Among those likely to be disappointed are currently incarcerated federal prisoners. For them, not much has changed:

1. Just Facts: The U.S. Prison Population Is Down (A Little) | Brennan ...
   https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/us-prison-population-down-little - 55k - Cached - Similar pages
   Oct 29, 2015 ... That's down by 15,400 people or one percent from the previous year ... Applying these estimates to reduction

 

[Clyde C Coger Jr]

Sorry, should have focused strictly on the article you posted.
My apologies.

Still, the pace of reform is painfully slow and not everyone has reason to applaud the data in Prisoners 2014. Among those likely to be disappointed are currently incarcerated federal prisoners. For them, not much has changed:

Until mass incarceration is eradicated I might have a difficult time accepting any writings claiming incarceration is down.

No, no, no, please don't feel that way, we are having and had a very robust discussion on prison reform that is badly needed. The article I posted only raised some light showing that de-incarceration for Blacks is on the rise.

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