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Apr 29, 2013 · Black voter turnout in 2012 surpasses whites Romney would've won if people voted at '04 rate, data show. By Hope Yen Associated Press; Comments - US: Black voter turnout rate surpasses whites - gulfnews.com ...
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April 29, 2013 at 10:30 am
Black voter turnout in 2012 surpasses whites
Romney would've won if people voted at '04 rate, data show
- By Hope Yen
- Associated Press
- 7 Comments
Had people voted last November at the same rates they did in 2004, when black turnout was below its current historic levels, Republican Mitt Romney would have won narrowly, according to an analysis conducted for The Associated Press.
Census data and exit polling show that whites and blacks will remain the two largest racial groups of eligible voters for the next decade. Last year's heavy black turnout came despite concerns about the effect of new voter-identification laws on minority voting, outweighed by the desire to re-elect the first black president.
William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, analyzed the 2012 elections for the AP using census data on eligible voters and turnout, along with November's exit polling. He estimated total votes for Obama and Romney under a scenario where 2012 turnout rates for all racial groups matched those in 2004. Overall, 2012 voter turnout was roughly 58 percent, down from 62 percent in 2008 and 60 percent in 2004.
The numbers are supplemented with material from the Pew Research Center and George Mason University associate professor Michael McDonald, a leader in the field of voter turnout, as well as AP interviews with the Census Bureau and other experts. The bureau plans to release data on voter turnout in May.
Overall, the findings represent a tipping point for blacks, who for much of America's history were disenfranchised and then effectively barred from voting until passage of the Voting Rights Act in 1965.
From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130429/POLITICS03/304290342#ixzz2RvM6k1Fz
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