Science and Technology : Just how much of our science and technology is faked

[umbrarchist]

You can write a lot but cannot answer the simple question: "Did you know the term 'bathtub curve' before I mentioned it or not?"

Yes or No?

 

[ogoun]

You can write a lot but cannot answer the simple question: "Did you know the term 'bathtub curve' before I mentioned it or not?"

Yes or No?

I did.
Why would it matter if I had known about it or not?

Now your turn,
Why won't you address any of my questions?

 

[umbrarchist]

Hmmm, don't know bout that umbrarchist. One can't expect consumers to know the minutiae of science or technology. What consumers expect and deserve is an honest evaluation in the various products and inherit dangers of use or consumption and importantly THE TRUE COST.

Is the concept of the "Bathtub Curve" minutiae?

How is anyone supposed to figure out THE TRUE COST of any product without accurate reliability data? That curve applies to all complex devices, even human beings. It does not help in understanding any technology. As a result of this discussion I tried to find the earliest reference. 1693 seems to be the first verifiable reference to the curve involving death rates in some German city.

 

[umbrarchist]

You mean like the true cost of all that lead thrown around in the early days of petroleum development? That kind of hidden 'not being told'.
Even when the down sides of lead became widely known ( I'll guess what? the mid fifties )...............we still have lead in our drinking water.........hold your breath.........from the pipes that supply that water. But but but we have someone that says x ppm are okay. WTF!!!!!!! The by now old adage 'unsafe at any speed' comes to mind..........no amount of lead is safe to consume


Think about it. Your comparing a $25,000 machine to a $900 machine. That should tell you something from the very first.
The cost of failure in one are multiple times more catastrophic that the failure in the other. Guess which one.

I was comparing the level of technology of 1908 machines and emphasizing the change in 30 years to the P-38 which was still a piston engine not a jet. Another factor affecting price is quantity of manufacture. The Model-T was a consumer product. The Wright flyer was not, the P-38 was not, a Lear Jet is not.

The price of the Model-T went down from 1908 and 14+ million were ultimately manufactured. As far as I know not even 50,000 of any model of plane have ever been made.

 

[ogoun]

Is the concept of the "Bathtub Curve" minutiae?

The concept on its' own is actually fairly simple.Every back yard tinkerer goes through the progress in their own manner if not in the actual construction of the/a graph.
The minutiae of the graph is what is elided or omitted. The minutiae is omitted through what we can call the 'steady state' of operation, eh or the flat line of the tub. To me that flat line represents the lowest common denominator for one, what people will accept in experience of use and two, for what they are willing to or be able to pay for in man-hours to first make and then operate that device through out the life time line.
If one were to make a realistic graph that nice smooth bottom of the tub would look more like a wash board or a saw tooth pattern.
In its' own way the bathtub graph is a lie if it is presented to a public as some be all end all for what to expect from any singular product.
Two short writings on the bath tub graph and it's usefulness;

A STUDY ON RELIABILITY, VALIDATION OF BATH TUB CURVE AND CONCEPT OF MADHAB’S HAT CURVE OF RELIABILITY | Jena | Scholedge International Journal of Multidisciplinary & Allied Studies ISSN 2394-336X

thescholedge.org

https://www.mfpt.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Heiser-Thomas-Bathtub-Failure-Distribution-MTBF-Paper.pdf

That curve applies to all complex devices, even human beings.

It CAN be is way I'd put it.
And if I were to apply it to human beings it depresses me and leads me to think about drowning it all in the bath tub.

1693 seems to be the first verifiable reference to the curve involving death rates in some German city.

It'd be interesting to see the reference. Was it some benevolent monk or medicine practitioner tracking the course of some disease taking its toll? Or some malevolent robber baron figuring out how much he could steal from and starve his chattel slaves or serfs and still expect them to produce? Oops kinda sounds like todays world doesn't it.

How is anyone supposed to figure out THE TRUE COST of any product without accurate reliability data?

The TRUE COST has nothing to do with accurate reliability data.
The true cost is what is filling the bath tub.